County’s FY2026 Budget Anticipates Looming Federal Cuts


Comments At Arlington County Budget Hearing, March 25, 2025.

Inspection of the FY 2026 Proposed Budget reveals a tax funded expenditure increase of 3.1 percent, which is about the rate of inflation. (Proposed Budget,  p. 103).

That’s the good news, and I applaud the County Manager for that. The bad news is that every year gimme groups demand millions in additional largesse, County Board rolls over, and taxpayers fill the bill.

The County Manager has argued that things are different this year, because $88 million in federal funds are in limbo (Proposed Budget, p. 13). If they are withheld, the County will be forced to draw down its strategic reserve to meet operating expenses.

To meet that contingency, the County Manager put an additional $11.5 million in the strategic reserve, bringing it to $33 million. But that leaves the County exposed to $50 million in potentially foregone federal revenue.

If as expected gimme groups like AHIF (Affordable Housing Investment Fund) extract more than its current budget allocation, the additional reserve funds will be wiped out. Last year AHIF supporters demanded and got an additional $11 million in one-time funding on top of an ongoing allocation of $10.5 million largely funded by a one cent tax rate increase.

This year’s AHIF funding not including Barcroft loan buydown and debt service is only $12.3 million well below last year’s $21.5 million (Budget Infographic, p. 1).

Since the affordable housing community thinks that taxing people out of their homes to provide housing for others is okay, it’s not going to settle for an AHIF cut. Therefore County Board has to look for other ways to save money.

The proposed budget includes average step increases for Fire and Police of 11% and 9% respectively, while General Employees including the Sheriff’s Office get a 3.5% increase (Budget Overview, Slide 12).

This salary differential is as unnecessary as it is unfair. The impetus for paying it was arguably Black Lives Matter, which deprecated law enforcement and disincentivized recruitment. Now that DEI is no longer official government policy, interest in policing might pick up and reduce the need for a salary differential to keep cops on the beat.

DHS, which plans to add 20 new positions to an already bloated staff of 800, offers another savings opportunity (Proposed Budget, p. 548). If the $2.7 million allocated for those positions were instead reallocated to needed services like eviction relief, there might be more funds for the gimme groups, and wouldn’t that be nice?

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